Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
21% YES
$60.6K volume · Resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 287 days left
Outcomes
December 31
21%
June 30
8%
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What is the Will Tesla release Optimus by...? prediction market?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Dec 31, 2026.