Market prices reflect theological consensus that no one knows the time of return and all past predictions failed. With 9 months left and no credible events, Yes stays under 4%.
What could flip this: Tail risk is a major figure or event claimed as Second Coming, like a viral supernatural sighting or leader's declaration, covered by outlets like Reuters as consensus fact. This could spike Yes to 20-50% on buying frenzy before debunking. Exact event: global broadcast of Jesus appearing in Jerusalem, verified by multiple news agencies.
Key Signals
Pancake Assessment
Market prices reflect theological consensus that no one knows the time of return and all past predictions failed. With 9 months left and no credible events, Yes stays under 4%.
Risk: Tail risk is a major figure or event claimed as Second Coming, like a viral supernatural sighting or leader's declaration, covered by outlets like Reuters as consensus fact. This could spike Yes to 20-50% on buying frenzy before debunking. Exact event: global broadcast of Jesus appearing in Jerusalem, verified by multiple news agencies.