Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
71% YES
$5.1M volume · Resolves Mar 31, 2026 · 12 days left
Outcomes
Yes
71%
No
30%
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What is the Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? prediction market?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Mar 31, 2026.