Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
16% YES
$65.1K volume · Resolves Jun 30, 2026 · 103 days left
Outcomes
Yes
16%
No
85%
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What is the Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? prediction market?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 30, 2026.