PANCAKE/R·ImLZ67Sx2026-05-27·Engine pancake-engine@0.1.1

Buy NO at >=0.98 with 2 days to resolution (Polymarket, Tier-1)

Buying NO against an EvidenceDataset (64 rows); 49 trades fired.

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Equity curve

$1,000 → $1,008.82 (0.88%).

Metrics

Avg trade return
+0.00%
no trades fired
Edge vs crowd
+0.00%
no trades fired
Compounded (fixed-fraction)
+0.88%
reflects sizing, not per-trade edge
CAGR
+2.48%
Sharpe
7.48
Sortino
6.90
Max drawdown
—
Win rate
100.00%
Trades
49

Drawdown

Peak-to-trough 0.00%.

Trade log

DecisionResolutionEntry priceSettlePnLDays heldReason
2026-01-202026-01-220.99851$0.082 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-312026-02-020.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-162026-02-180.99951$0.033 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-172026-02-210.99851$0.085 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-212026-02-230.99851$0.083 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-262026-02-280.99851$0.083 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.9941$0.303 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.99951$0.033 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.99951$0.033 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.99951$0.033 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.99651$0.183 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.99651$0.183 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.99551$0.233 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.99951$0.033 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-272026-04-010.98551$0.745 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-282026-04-030.98351$0.846 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-302026-04-010.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-302026-04-010.991$0.513 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-150.98051$1.006 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-182026-04-200.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-182026-04-200.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-182026-04-200.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-182026-04-200.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-182026-04-200.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-182026-04-200.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-282026-04-300.99951$0.033 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-282026-04-300.99951$0.033 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-282026-04-300.99851$0.083 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-282026-04-300.9891$0.563 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.991$0.512 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99451$0.282 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99751$0.132 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99751$0.133 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99751$0.132 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99551$0.232 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.98951$0.532 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99751$0.132 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.9981$0.102 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-022026-05-040.9891$0.562 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-032026-05-050.99851$0.083 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-102026-05-120.99851$0.083 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-112026-05-130.9931$0.362 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-122026-05-140.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-122026-05-140.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-132026-05-150.99651$0.182 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-132026-05-150.99951$0.032 dayshold_to_resolution

How this was run i

Data source i
EvidenceDataset
Granularity i
86,400 sec
Period i
2026-01-12 → 2026-05-21
Bars i
64
Gaps i
0 (0 sec)
Price source i
mid
Slippage i
0 bps
Fees i
0 bps
Resolution i
realized
Starting capital i
$1,000
Sizing i
fixed_fraction: 0.05
Engine i
pancake-engine@0.1.1
Compiler i
pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0
IR i
0.1
Spec i
0.1
  • Resolution settles at $1 or $0 per share with no slippage or fee — on-chain costs and UMA dispute risk are not modeled.
  • Benchmark = crowd-priced YES at the first bar, held to resolution. Not sizing-matched to your strategy.
  • Sharpe is annualized by √252 (trading-day convention) even though prediction markets run 24/7.

Spec

pancake-evidence-spec · rawv0.1
// pancake-evidence-spec v0.1 — spec_hash 6855c01f9f93…
{
  "name": "Buy NO at >=0.98 with 2 days to resolution (Polymarket, Tier-1)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 0,
    "slippage_bps": 0
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "NO",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 0.98,
        "feature": "entry_price"
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 1,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "6855c01f9f938179470a8f0930282c883714eee3e374119bcf56207379b9747a",
  "starting_capital": 1000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "a780a7f6-cd1e-4eff-b02e-935592404834",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    ]
  }
}

renderer: pancake-renderer@0.1.0 · engine: pancake-engine@0.1.1 · compiler: pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0 · spec_hash: 6855c01f9f93… · ir_hash: 6855c01f9f93…