Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
5% YES
$3.6M volume · Resolves Dec 31, 2025 · Resolved
Outcomes
June 30, 2026
5%
December 31, 2025
0%
Related Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Gavin Newsom 24%Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance 39%Presidential Election Winner 2028JD Vance 21%Venezuela leader end of 2026?Delcy Rodríguez 58%Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? prediction market?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Dec 31, 2025.