Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
4% YES
$452.2K volume · Resolves Dec 31, 2025 · Resolved
Outcomes
March 31, 2026
4%
December 31
0%
October 31
0%
Related Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Gavin Newsom 24%Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance 39%Presidential Election Winner 2028JD Vance 21%Venezuela leader end of 2026?Delcy Rodríguez 58%Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...? prediction market?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Dec 31, 2025.