Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
5% YES
$1.5M volume · Resolves Jun 30, 2026 · 103 days left
Outcomes
Yes
5%
No
95%
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What is the Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? prediction market?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 30, 2026.