Will any country leave NATO by...?
5% YES
$407.1K volume · Resolves Dec 31, 2025 · Resolved
Outcomes
June 30, 2026
5%
December 31, 2025
0%
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What is the Will any country leave NATO by...? prediction market?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Dec 31, 2025.