Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
28% YES
$1.1M volume · Resolves Jun 30, 2026 · 103 days left
Outcomes
xAI
28%
OpenAI
26%
DeepSeek
9%
Meta
7%
Z.ai
7%
Related Markets
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?December 31, 2026 12%How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?1 (25 bps) 32%Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?2% YESLargest Company end of June?NVIDIA 83%Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? prediction market?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 30, 2026.