U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
31% YES
$1.3M volume · Resolves Jun 30, 2026 · 103 days left
Outcomes
June 30
31%
March 31
11%
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What is the U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...? prediction market?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 30, 2026.