How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
42% YES
$259.0K volume · Resolves Dec 31, 2026 · 287 days left
Outcomes
5-6
42%
<5
24%
7-8
15%
9-10
10%
13-14
5%
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What is the How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? prediction market?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
When does this market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on Dec 31, 2026.